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S&P Global Mobility Light-Vehicle Forecast: A Cautious Recovery

January 3, 2023

SP-Global-Mobility-light-vehicle-sales-forecast “The longer the supply squeeze lasts, the more potential there is for lost or destroyed demand.”

So goes the year-end forecast from S&P Global Mobility, which predicts that global new light-vehicle sales will reach nearly 83.6 million units in 2023, a 5.6-percent increase year-over-year.

“The auto industry continues to navigate supply-chain challenges while confronted by several markets facing deteriorating economic conditions and fading pent-up demand,” the forecast notes. “As semiconductor availability plays out, demand destruction is expected to take a more fundamental role in 2023, impacting production and the inventory restocking cycle.”

Full-year 2022 light-vehicle sales--projected to reach nearly 79.2 million units by S&P Global Mobility--represent a 1.3-percent decline from 2021 levels.

By region, Western/Central European 2022 vehicle sales should post 12.9 million units, a 6.7-percent decline year over year, 2023 demand is forecasted at 13.9. U.S. sales volumes are expected to reach 14.8 million units in 2023, an estimated increase of 7.0 percent from the projected 2022 level of 13.8 million units. And for mainland China, S&P Global Mobility analysts report 2022 sales will end up at 24.8 million units, up 3.6 percent year over year, and project 2023 sales of 25.9 million units.

Technologies: Management