Page 38 - MetalForming April 2017

Auto Forecast:
Auto Forecast:
Photo courtesy of Ford Motor Co.
Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty?
We’re seven years into the recovery of the U.S. automotive industry... that’s good. Demographics are changing, trade deals are uncertain and world economies are fair at best...that’s not so good.
BY LOUIS A. KREN, SENIOR EDITOR
Arecord 2016 saw 17.55 million new passenger vehicles sold, pushed by strong December sales. But in that impressive number, the New York Times sees cause for concern. December 2016’s numbers were boosted by huge buyer incentives. The thought is that after seven years of growth— including last year’s eclipse of 2015’s numbers, which served as the previous record—perhaps the cycle has peaked.
“Millennials are less interested than baby boomers in buying cars, prefer- ring the freedom of ride-hailing over the hassle of ownership. This could mean the beginning of a trend toward specialized vehicles specifically built for these services—and the consequent reduction of private-use vehicles,” states a 2017 auto-supply-trends report from RSM US LLP, an audit, tax and consulting firm. And there’s more:
“Weakening economies, rising interest rates, credit tightening and changing consumer demographics are factors that many OEM and aftermarket sup- pliers feel could contribute to a decline of the automotive market. Skill short- ages—particularly engineering and technical specialists, who are being lured by Silicon Valley—threaten to impair growth as well. Overall, sales of automobiles appear to be reaching a plateau and it is not clear what the impact may be of any tax cuts and tar- iffs on imports imposed by the new administration.”
17 Million-Plus Sales Expected in 2017
This should not be read as doom and gloom...read it as uncertainty. Because even with so much up in the air, for the third year in a row more
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MetalForming/April 2017
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