Page 40 - MetalForming April 2017

Auto Forecast
than 17 million vehicles are expected to be sold in the United States in 2017, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA).
“We are headed toward a stable mar- ket for U.S. auto sales, not a growing market,” said Steven Szakaly, NADA chief economist, at a recent briefing. “The industry has achieved record sales and pent-up demand is effectively spent.”
Szakaly forecasts momentum in auto sales throughout the year and perhaps a second-half surge, aided by economic growth, cheap gas and a gen- eral settling down after surprise elec- tion results. Others also see the poten- tial for growth in auto sales. Morgan Stanley forecasts 2 to 4-percent growth in 2017; Germany’s Center for Auto- motive Research sees 2-percent growth in U.S. sales if President Trump’s plans for economic stimulus and tax cuts come to fruition. On the other hand, BMI Research sees sales falling by 1.8 percent owing to a cyclical plateau and rising U.S. used-car stocks.
Employees attach electric parts at Ford's Flexible Michigan Assembly Plant. Here, flexi- ble work stations allow assembly of multiple powertrains on a single line. Flexible manu- facturing has implications for parts providers in terms of lot sizes, variety in part families and just-in-time production. Photo courtesy of Sam VarnHagen, Ford Motor Co.
Slower Sales Pace Than 2016
All of that said, at press time January 2017 sales have shown that a slowdown may be in the works. J.D. Power expects January new-vehicle retail sales to top out at 874,000 units, down 2 percent from January 2016, while total light- vehicle sales are expected to reach
1,125,900 units, a 1.8-percent decline. “With sales posting impressive gains at the end of December, the slow start to January was not unexpected,” says Deirdre Borrego, senior vice president of automotive data and analytics at J.D. Power. “While this year will mark the first time that the industry has started
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38 MetalForming/April 2017
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