Page 21 - Metalorming Magazine January/February 2023

nameplates in the region will grow 18 percent—from 210 to 249. Additionally, EV nameplates will grow from 20 per- cent of the mix in 2023 to 46 percent in 2029. New nameplates generate new launches, which require more tools. Further, the Detroit Three automakers, who source most of their tools in this region, plan to source tooling for new full-sized pickup trucks and SUVs in 2024, 2025 and 2026, which significant- ly increases tooling demand. The Har- bour IQ study shows that the discrete number of tools will increase by 14 percent CAGR from 2022 to 2025, driv- ing more demand for tooling with all of the new models.
“Despite economic uncertainty and supply-chain challenges, we see a bright future for the automotive tooling industry,” offers Harbour. “Although we see growth within the industry, it is important to note that North Amer- ican tooling spend per vehicle for BEVs on average are lower than ICE vehicles by about 30 percent. Although we see tooling spend and the number of tools sourced increasing over the next few years, the average spend per tool will decrease. So, it will be important for mold and die companies to focus on improved efficiency and throughput.”
Aerospace and Defense
Navigating uncertain times in these two sectors requires a close eye to five trends, as described in Deloitte’s 2023 Aerospace and Defense Industry Out- look:
1. Supply chain
“Focus on supply-chain visibility and resilience to mitigate a broader set of risks,” the report reads.
2. Digital transformation
“Acceleration of digital thread and smart factory can drive improved effi- ciencies.”
3.Talent
“Attracting, retaining and develop- ing top talent remains a challenge.”
4. Decarbonization
“Lowering emissions and imple- menting sustainable manufacturing remain business priorities.”
5. Emerging markets
“Innovation accelerates growth in emerging areas. Business agility and digital transformation will be key to staying ahead.”
While the aerospace and defense industries exhibited signs of a strong rebound in 2022, supply-chain and labor-force issues limit growth, accord- ing to Deloitte’s outlook, and the Russ- ian invasion of Ukraine disrupted global supply chains and exacerbated fuel- price volatility. Other forces at play include demand for passenger travel, which directly relates to ticket prices and rises and falls with the price of fuel.
All of this has aircraft manufacturers investing in more fuel-efficient aircraft and engine designs to lower operating costs, and exploring lower- and zero- emissions commercial aircraft.
“The strong recovery in air travel is leading to increased aircraft orders and aftermarket activity,” notes the study. “Domestic traffic levels (in September 2022) registered about 81 percent of the pre-pandemic 2019 levels and inter- national traffic levels have shown strong growth with easing travel restric- tions worldwide.”
Adding to this, OEMs, the study finds, predict that by the end of 2023 or early 2024 global passenger traffic will return to 2019 levels. Look for increased travel abroad by U.S. resi- dents, in particular, as 31 percent of Americans (per a poll by tourism-mar- ket research firm Destination Analysts) are more interested in international than domestic travel.
On the commercial-aircraft side, the global commercial aviation market is projected to register a CAGR of 7.65 percent, according to Mordor Intelli- gence. Commercial aircraft orders dur- ing the third quarter of 2022 were at their highest since 2015, notes a Simple Flying report, with a total of 670 planes ordered. “While more than 600 of the aircraft ordered are narrowbodies, Q3 also saw a rise in demand for widebody jets,” the report reads.
Among recent industry news: Airbus projects that over the next 20 years it will deliver more than 38,000 new air- planes; and late in 2022 United Airlines
agreed to purchase at least 200 Boeing planes, split between two models—the 737 Max and the 787 Dreamliner. Sim- ilarly, Delta Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 Max aircraft during Q3 2022.
Regarding the defense industry, the Deloitte report notes that the segment remained “stable through 2022 and is expected to outperform the commer- cial aerospace segment as an increase in defense budgets in the wake of the invasion is boosting demand for mili- tary equipment globally.”
In addition, the FY 2023 U.S. defense budget aims to address strategic threats from China and Russia, with moneys allocated to developing electronic war- fare and cybersecurity.
The majority (88 percent) of Deloitte’s survey takers say that they believe the general business outlook for the aerospace and defense industry for the coming year is “somewhat to very positive.”
“Companies focused on innovation and (that are) prepared to capitalize on new emerging opportunities could outperform their peers in 2023,” the study concludes.
Drilling down, diversifying the sup- plier base for critical supplies is a top priority to build and manage supply- chain resiliency. Leading primes have shown meaningful progress in reducing Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions in 2022, yet “they face challenges in tracking emissions across operations and the value chain,” the study notes. “Accord- ing to the International Data Corp., 80 percent of global manufacturers will incorporate environmental sustain- ability in their products by 2024.”
Further, a report from Data Bridge Market Research predicts that the glob- al aerospace parts-manufacturing mar- ket will witness “significant growth dur- ing the forecast period (2022-2030) due to increasing demand for lighter, inno- vative and efficient airplanes to reduce carbon emissions.”
Appliance
Revenue in the U.S. major appliance market (dishwashing machines, refrig- erators, cookers and ovens, freezers,
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