Page 20 - Metalorming Magazine January/February 2023

year 2022 light-vehicle sales to reach nearly 79.2 million units, represent- ing a 1.3-percent decline from 2021 levels.
“The auto industry continues to navigate supply-chain challenges while confronted by sev- eral markets facing dete- riorating economic con- ditions and fading pent-up demand,” the forecast notes. “As semi- conductor availability plays out, demand destruction is expected to take a more funda- mental role in 2023, impacting production and the inventory restocking cycle.”
Metal formers serving automotive must remain versatile to meet the indus- try’s expected growth in non-ICE vehicles along with the unique materials and part-designs required through this growth. Omex Manufacturing ULC, an automotive supplier in Stratford, Ontario, Canada, focuses on versatility by upgrading its pressroom with state-of-the-art servomechanical presses, including the 630-ton unit, shown here, installed in fall 2022.
Harbour Results, Inc. (HRI) dove deep into eco- nomic factors affecting future automotive pro- duction, and how the industry will cope with automotive electrifica- tion. Overall, Covid, sup- ply-chain issues and espe- cially chip shortages resulted in 8 million light vehicles completely dis- appearing from produc- tion since 2021, Joe McCabe, president and CEO of AFS told the assembled. The high- water mark of North American light-vehicle production, 17.8 million, will not be reached again, he forecasts, until much later this decade, possibly
By region, Western/
Central European 2022 vehicle sales should post 12.9 million units, a 6.7- percent decline year over year, and 2023 demand is forecasted at 13.9 mil- lion. U.S. sales volumes are expected to reach 14.8 million units in 2023, an estimated increase of 7.0 percent from the projected 2022 level of 13.8 million units. And for mainland China, S&P Global Mobility analysts report 2022 sales will end up at 24.8 million units, up 3.6 percent year over year, and proj- ect 2023 sales of 25.9 million units.
Economic health will have quite a say in light-vehicle sales. While the risk of recession in 2023 remains, Cox Auto- motive expects the economy to expe- rience slowing or very weak growth as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary conditions and consumers continue to wrestle with high interest rates.
“A job-wrecking recession is a worst- case scenario for the auto industry, but hope for an economic soft landing remains,” a 2023-prediciton piece from Cox Automotive reads. “Either way, a sputtering economy will hold back the auto market in the year ahead. (And,) new-vehicle production challenges are beginning to ebb, and inventory levels are measurably improving. While lin- gering supply-chain and labor chal-
lenges will remain, and capacity will not return completely to pre-pandemic levels in the foreseeable future, stronger production levels and softer demand will lead to higher days’ supply and, ultimately, more vehicle options for shoppers in 2023.”
Within the overall light-vehicle mar- ket, U.S. EV sales will surpass 1 million units in 2023, according to Cox Auto- motive, as the automotive industry backs up its all-in mindset. How all-in?
“While EVs only accounted for 8 percent of global sales in 2021, pro- duction and market share are set to explode to an estimated 33 percent of global sales by 2028, and as high as 54 percent in 2035,” as cited in a report from USC Consulting Group. “Not only that, but the total EV investment among automotive suppliers and man- ufacturers is set to reach $526 billion between 2022 and 2026, nearly double the investment from the beginning of the decade.”
And, by 2029, predicts AutoForecast Solutions, EVs may represent one- third of the North American market and 26 percent of vehicles produced worldwide.
A late-2022 OESA event featuring an automotive tooling update from
as late as 2029.
As for the EV hype, “Wall Street loves
tech,” Laurie Harbour, HRI president and CEO told attendees. “You see it in investments in batteries, EVs...com- panies are setting electrification goals in order to boost stock prices. With this as the end goal, OEMs are all-in on elec- trification.”
For suppliers of tooling, “we’ve already been through the slowdown,” Harbour said, noting that tooling spend reflects future expectations, thus sup- pliers have weathered the worst of the automotive downturn.
In fact, recent automaker profits are funding an increased number of new- vehicle launches over the next few years, which will lead to a year-over- year 13.4-percent increase in North American automotive-vendor tooling spend, according to HRI in its most recent Harbour IQ report.
Several key factors are driving the increase in tooling spend, the report notes. First, despite a drop in North American vehicle demand, most automakers are experiencing record levels of profit per vehicle sold. This strong performance is funding invest- ment in technology and new vehicles. From 2023-2029 the number of vehicle
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