Page 41 - MetalForming March 2020

To help automotive suppliers navigate the churning waters ahead, PMA’s APSC 2020, April 28-29 in Detroit, MI, delivers an agenda loaded with industry leaders ready to share their perspectives and advice. In addition, great networking opportunities abound.
vidual mobility platforms.
• Shared. Sharing concepts will
become economically viable with the introduction of autonomous vehicles. No longer will it be necessary to search for a shared vehicle in the surrounding area. Instead, consumers will be able to order vehicles to wherever they hap- pen to be via a convenient on-demand service.
• Connected. This applies to car-to- car and car-to-x communication, mean- ing the networking of the car with other cars or with the transport infrastructure (such as traffic lights). Also, the term covers the networking of vehicle occu- pants with the outside world. In the future, they will be able to communi- cate, work, surf the internet or access multi-media services during their jour- neys.
• Yearly updated. The development topics of electrified, autonomous, con- nected and shared will lead to a clear increase in the rate of innovation within the automotive industry. Model cycles of five to eight years, always common in this sector, could soon disappear. Instead, the range of models will be updated annually in order to integrate the latest hardware and software devel- opments. As customers will not want to buy a new vehicle every year due to high purchase costs, short innovation cycles will enter the market primarily through regular upgrades of shared vehicles.
The EASCY vehicle of the future, the report reads, will emit less exhaust fumes and noise into its environment because it is electric; consume less per- sonal time and space because it moves
autonomously; and be more accessible because, for autonomous vehicles, users will not need drivers’ licenses. These vehicles become more affordable because they no longer must be bought outright but instead can be paid for in small amounts per use. All predictions suggest that driving will become easier, safer, cheaper and more comfortable.
Should these forecasts prove true, the automotive sector faces an unprecedented change with regard to the far-reaching effects. Elementary structures and attitudes within the automotive industry and related value chains will have to change fast in order to cope with these developments. By 2030 and beyond, according to the report, manufacturers and the suppli- ers seeking success will have to offer customer-oriented innovations.
In the age of EASCY, mobility serv- ices, not just the product, will be at the heart of automotive-industry mod- els. Manufacturers and suppliers con- tinuing to focus solely on the produc- tion and sale of vehicles will find it especially difficult to manage the restructuring of the automotive sector. It will be essential to link the hardware (i.e. the vehicle) with the software (i.e. the services).
Fewer Cars on the Road, Yet Higher Sales
For the study leading to this report, PwC Autofacts devised a mathematical model to determine the effects of restructuring on key performance indi- cators of the automotive sector, namely existing car inventory and new car sales.
Ultimately, these two variables deter- mine the value chain of automotive production, and, therefore, are critical for the future business models of man- ufacturers and suppliers. The report focuses on impacts on the world’s three largest automotive markets: the United States, Europe and China.
The study aimed to model the future development of the market, starting with the user. The report based on this study details reorientation of the indus- try and finds that:
• Consumer mobility habits will change, personal and overall vehicle mileage will increase, and vehicles will be used more intensively.
• Automotive inventory will decrease significantly, vehicle sales will rise regardless, and autonomous driving and electrification will be mutually beneficial.
From the manufacturer/supplier standpoint, the report predicts the fol- lowing:
• Rapid redistribution of R&D invest- ment.
• Decisions regarding the long-term structure will be made between 2020 and 2025.
• Future business models will include the sale and operation of vehicles.
Upon clarification of legal questions and overcoming of the main techno- logical hurdles, expect the percentage of shared and autonomous mobility in terms of overall road traffic to rise sig- nificantly. By 2030, from 33 to 40 per- cent of miles driven will involve sharing in the United States and Europe, with more rapid sharing implementation
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