Page 52 - MetalForming April 2013

20th Annual
The State of the North American
Automotive Supply Base
BY DAVE ANDREA
The North American supply base is fundamentally strong, with great near-term opportunities. Sup- pliers have shown great fortitude through the recession of 2008 to 2009 and resilience through the Japanese and Thailand natural disasters, and must exhibit their resourcefulness in meeting light-duty vehicle-production projections for 2013. The challenge: Supporting the forecasted 15.9 million units of production in 2013, a 600,000 incremental increase over 2012.
How Do We Get There?
Through 2013, suppliers will face capacity constraints, labor issues, extraordinary operating costs, capital- expenditure requirements and other issues. In addition, overall corporate revenue and margins will be under pressure as regional markets, particu-
Dave Andrea is senior vice president, industry analysis and economics, at the Original Equipment Suppliers Associa- tion, Troy, MI, an affiliate of the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association: 248/952-6401; www.oesa.org.
North American industry-level breakeven points have grown by 21 percent, from 9.5 million units in 2009 to 12 million units in 2013. This increase pales in comparison to the 85-percent increase in production expected to occur in 2013 over the 8.6 million units manufactured in 2009.
North American Light Duty Sales, Production and Breakeven
25 20 15 10
5 0
NA Sales
NA Production
12.0 Million Units = B/E January 2013
11.2 Million Units = B/E July 2012 11.0 Million Units = B/E January 2012
10.5 Million Units = B/E January 2011 and July 2011 10.0 Million Units = B/E May 2010
9.5 Million Units = B/E Sept 2009
larly in Europe, remain a large risk for suppliers. Nearly one-third of OESA respondents to the January 2013 OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer sur- vey noted that their European-opera- tion revenues have fallen off more than their North American operations have grown.
regions. Publically owned suppliers are being proactive and reporting write- offs for European restructuring. As one OESA member noted in a recent dis- cussion, “We are reducing headcount and facilities as opportunities present. However, it is difficult to downsize with social costs.” That said, after the near- death experience of 2009, suppliers
50 MetalForming/April 2013
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There are
implications
in both
Millions
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