Page 16 - MetalForming February 2022 Special Automotive Issue

Ford recently announced plans to double production of its electric F-150 Lightning, from 40,000 to 80,000 units at its new Dearborn, MI, facility, and triple production of its electric Mustang Mach-E, built in Mexico.
reduced the expected production loss in Q4, due to chip shortages and other disruptions. However, vehicle manu- facturers are choosing to slow the daily build rate instead of shutting down the entire plant, reducing the visibility of output downtime. ...With some addi- tional stability in production, the out- look for U.S. auto sales has improved slightly for 2022—from 15.7 million units to 15.9 million units, an increase of 6 percent over 2021.”
Jeff Schuster, president, Americas operations and global vehicle forecasts at LMC, adds: “A slight improvement in production is welcome news for the industry...2022 most certainly will be challenging but if the consumer remains optimistic and demand con- tinues, the recovery is expected to remain intact. Other risks remain ele- vated, including concerns with the Omicron variant and lingering infla- tion, keeping the current environment very dynamic.”
In addition, according to a Cox Auto- motive press release, inventory levels in the United States are less than half of what they were a year ago...“but the worst is likely behind us. Our industry analysts expect pent-up demand to feed the industry with a steady stream of buyers for the foreseeable future. ... New-vehicle sales in 2021 will finish closer to 15 million and recover to 16.3 million in 2022.”
On the Electric-Vehicle Front
...IHS Markit reports that “installa-
tions of renewable energy and sales of electric vehicles (EVs) set records in the United States in recent quarters, as the economy rebounded from COVID-19 and the energy transition continued to gain steam.” Data from the Industry Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI) in its Q3 quarterly report issued in mid-December reveal “consistent growth in the ZEV (zero- emission vehicle, including battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles) sector. Year-over-year, the third quarter had 82,000 more ZEV unit sales than the same period in 2020. Through the first three quarters of the year, ZEV sales represented 3.9 percent of the market, up from 2 percent over the same period of 2020.”
A recent CNBC report estimates EV market share to climb as high as 8 per- cent by 2025.
“The increased selection of ZEV models is accompanying growth trends,” the AAI report continues, “with sales of crossovers, SUVs, minivans and pickup trucks making up nearly 60 percent of the ZEV market. ... Monthly sales of BEV and PHEV CUVs have grown from less than 16 percent of ZEVs at the start of 2020 to an aver- age of 52 percent in the third quarter of 2021 (averaging 51 percent of ZEV sales since the start of the year).”
IHS Markit principal automotive analyst Stephanie Brinley adds: “In 2022 we will continue to see increased EV sales, as new EV options continue to launch and price and segment
options continue to expand. ...General consumer demand trends have con- tinued in 2021 and share of utility vehi- cles and pickup trucks continues to increase, with utilities approaching 55 percent of new-vehicle sales, while pickup truck sales are approaching 20 percent of sales.”
According to the International Ener- gy Agency, while the global EV count was less than 100,000 in 2010, that number climbed above 11 million units in 2021 and will approach 100 million by 2030.
Exemplifying the ZEV movement, Toyota announced that its European new-vehicle sales will be zero-emis- sions by 2035, with an interim goal of reaching 50-percent ZEV by 2030, and the automaker plans to invest $1.3 bil- lion to build a new EV battery plant in North Carolina that will employ 1750 people and begin production in 2025. Other recent EV news: Bollinger Motors announced a strategic collaboration with EAVX to develop electric work trucks; and Volkswagen estimates that it will invest as much as 30 billion euros in new battery-cell manufacturing sites and raw materials, and has set a goal of opening six battery-cell plants in Europe by 2030. Ford recently announced plans to double production of its electric F-150 Lightning, from 40,000 to 80,000 units at its new Dear- born, MI, facility, and triple production of its electric Mustang Mach-E. It also announced plans to invest $11.4 billion on new production campuses in
14 MetalForming/February 2022
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