Q3 the Year’s Best Quarter for U.S. Auto Sales

A last-minute surge in battery-electric vehicle (BEV) purchases ahead of the September 30 federal tax-credit expiration pushed U.S. auto sales to their best quarter of 2025, according to new analysis from S&P Global Mobility. However, S&P Global Mobility forecasts a market slowdown as affordability pressures and policy shifts are expected to temper demand in the fourth quarter.

September sales checked at about 1.23 million units, reflecting a sales pace of 16.2 million SAAR.

Three key findings from the analysis:

1. The imminent expiration of the consumer EV tax credit on September 30 led to a record BEV market share of 10.0% in August.

2. The sustained performance over the last three months has established the third quarter of 2025 as the year's top period for growth.

3. Despite the strong Q3 finish, the market faces significant headwinds. S&P Global Mobility expects a "significant drop" in EV adoption in the fourth quarter following the incentive pull-forward. It estimates full-year 2025 volume to come in at 16.02 million units.

Technologies: Management

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