METALFORM '91 is now behind us. It was about 58 percent larger than its predecessor in 1989. The 295 exhibitors was a new high for participation, and the fact that there are over 100 first-time exhibitors in these economic times bodes well for the future of the show. METALFORM'92 in Nashville is sold out.

The state of the metalforming industry-the industry that gives utility to sheet metal by shaping it with tooling in machines-is a mixture of good news and bad news.

In 1990 industry shipments were down four percent from the previous year. Order bookings were down about the same. The industry backlog, after charting all-time highs in the late 1980s, slumped during 1990, but has been recovering sharply during the last five months.

The good news is that January 1991 shipments jumped 23 percent over the previous month. Order bookings jumped 31 percent-perhaps an all-time month-to-month high.

So, much of the ground lost during the dismal fourth quarter of 1990 has been recovered in one month. The PMA Business Conditions survey shows slightly increasing optimism for the period ahead. Perhaps we have bottomed out.

In a longer term perspective, however, the picture is not wildly encouraging. Since 1984, industry growth is up less than 12 percent in dollar shipments. This means that after adjusting for inflation there has been little, if any, net growth in real terms over the last seven years.

In addition to orders, shipments and backlog, Precision Metalforming Association's management information services have been tracking a variety of operating ratios.

For example, material costs, as a proportion of total sales price, are creeping up. They've risen from an average of 30.8 percent in 1986, to 31.7 percent in 1987, and 33.1 percent in 1988. In 1989 material costs have risen to 36.1 percent of sales.

Average industry profits over the past five years have been within the narrow range of 2.5 percent to 4.8 percent, net after taxes. In 1990, they were 4.2 percent.

Significantly, however, in each of the last five years, some 20 to 28 percent of those responding to the PMA surveys have reported losses. In 1989 it was 26 percent. It's evident that a number of companies are in trouble. We lose perhaps three to five percent of the companies in the industry each year.

Apparently the firms with the foresight and resources to respond to changes in market conditions are surviving. Those for whom growth is an inconvenience are falling by the wayside in today's ultra-competitive environment.

We're in an era of continuing and rapid changes. Many of these changes are driven by forces beyond our control-the political developments, cost factors, trade regulations and customer preferences that shape the world market.

While we do not control this new business environment, our survival and future prosperity depend on responding to it positively and effectively.

It means improved communications with our customers.

It means earlier involvement in the design and development of new products.

It means shorter runs and more flexible lead times to be responsive to just-in-time delivery requirements.

It means new attention to product quality, and, particularly, better control of production processes.

It means new emphasis on effective training of employees for greater productivity.

It means that we will be adapting and blending technologies as we seek to provide more "value added."

These changes are significant, and they present a challenge that cannot be met by doing what we have always done, only doing it better. It means we must welcome change with enthusiasm, and learn quickly to manage it.

Interestingly, a group of knowledgeable industry technical experts recently agreed that the metalforming industry is as much as 20 years behind the metal cutting industry in the adoption of electronics and new, more productive manufacturing systems. If true, this means we've got some catching up to do!

The Association is working to assist its members in this effort, with a variety of programs-including expanded management information services, and several training programs for member employees.

And, of course, the expanding series of larger METALFORM shows, the published proceeding of our improved technical symposium, and the renewed editorial emphasis in MetalForming magazine-along with our study missions to foreign trade shows are all designed to bring the interested metalforming company into contact with new technology.

Hopefully, some of the spirit of accomplishment we are all feeling after our tremendous success in the Persian Gulf will stimulate us to do the same in our international industrial competition. Maybe some of the confidence and enthusiasm will rub off on us and inspire us to educate ourselves in the new technologies and train our employees appropriately.